{"id":30126,"date":"2022-03-15T11:33:43","date_gmt":"2022-03-15T15:33:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/blog.carlrobitaille.org\/?p=30126"},"modified":"2022-03-15T11:33:47","modified_gmt":"2022-03-15T15:33:47","slug":"if-the-annual-probability-for-some-event-is-1-then-the-cumulative-probability-that-this-event-happens-within-100-years-is-63","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/blog.carlrobitaille.org\/?p=30126","title":{"rendered":"If the annual probability for some event is 1%, then the cumulative probability that this event happens within 100 years is 63%."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">It&#39;s not very intuitive how large the cumulative probability of an event is for which the annual probability is low. So I made this chart.<br><br>If the annual probability for some event is 1%, then the cumulative probability that this event happens within 100 years is 63%. <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/DIxyurBzpo\">pic.twitter.com\/DIxyurBzpo<\/a><\/p>&mdash; Max Roser (@MaxCRoser) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/MaxCRoser\/status\/1499652503423627264?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">March 4, 2022<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"","protected":false},"author":2,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[19],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30126","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-mathematiques"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.carlrobitaille.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30126","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.carlrobitaille.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.carlrobitaille.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.carlrobitaille.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/2"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.carlrobitaille.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=30126"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/blog.carlrobitaille.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30126\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30127,"href":"https:\/\/blog.carlrobitaille.org\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30126\/revisions\/30127"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/blog.carlrobitaille.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=30126"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.carlrobitaille.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=30126"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/blog.carlrobitaille.org\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=30126"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}